India’s Monsoon Forecast: Above-Normal Rain Predicted by IMD
Dispelling concerns of prolonged drought-like conditions amidst intense summer heat and climatic shifts. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that India is set to experience above-normal monsoon rains this season. M. Ravichandran, the secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, revealed that seasonal rainfall is projected to reach 87 cm. Amounting to 106 percent of the long-period average (LPA).
Although the period until June is expected to see a significant number of heat wave days. The IMD aims to provide updates on the onset and distribution of monsoon rainfall across India by mid-May. However, there are apprehensions regarding the uniformity of rain distribution nationwide. The impact of climate change has exacerbated the variability of rain-bearing systems, leading to uncertainties in certain regions.
IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra cautioned that parts of northwest, east, and northeast India may experience below-normal rainfall. Several states, including Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, are among those with uncertain rainfall forecasts.
India’s Monsoon Forecast: Above-Normal Rain Predicted by IMD
Mohapatra highlighted the presence of El Niño conditions, which signify the heating of Pacific Ocean surface waters, adversely affecting the monsoon. These conditions are expected to persist during the first half of the season. However, models suggest a transition to La Niña conditions, the opposite of El Niño, by August-September, which would favor rainfall.
Drawing from data spanning from 1951 to 2023, Mohapatra pointed out that India experienced above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season on all nine occasions when La Niña followed an El Niño event. Additionally, favorable factors such as positive Indian Ocean dipole conditions, along with low snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia, are conducive to a robust monsoon season, Mohapatra added.